Retailers mark first positive activity index since June 2023
Michigan Retailers Association reports that October 2024’s Retail Index significantly increased to 54.5, in comparison to September’s 38.7 on the 100-point Retail Index. October 2024 sales mark the first time the current performance outlook has indicated positive activity (over 50) since June 2023, which came in at 56.0.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Fifty percent noted an increase in October sales over September, 37% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 13% reported no change.
“As the holidays approach, it’s expected that shoppers are going to spend more. It’s encouraging to see Michigan’s Retail Index climb in October, especially following September’s drop, as it is a good indicator that consumers are following anticipated shopping trends,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “Holiday spending is projected to reach a new record this year, and we’re excited to see that Michiganders are choosing to shop locally early in the holiday season.”
Retailers’ 3-Month Optimism Dips
When asked to predict their sales outlook for November through January, 53% of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise, 28% said they expect their sales to decline, and 19% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 62.3, a decrease over September’s 68.2.
“While it’s promising to see over half of Michigan retailers predicting continued growth into the new year, the dip in the Retail Index from September’s 68.2 to October’s 62.3 reflects a level of uncertainty as retailers brace for the post-holiday dip in sales,” Hallan shared. “With the understanding that January often brings a slow season for retailers, it’s important that consumers continue to support the businesses in their communities after the holidays pass.”
Unemployment Rates
The national unemployment rate in October remained at 4.1% from September. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.8%. October’s unemployment rate in Michigan rose slightly to 4.7%, over September’s 4.5%. Last October, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.2%.
