LANSING – Most Michigan retailers reported better holiday sales, thanks to a strong December, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The average year-to-year change was a 1.1 percent increase for the season, slightly below retailers’ average pre-season prediction of +1.6 percent.
For all of 2014, the average change from the year before was a 1.0 percent increase.
“December was the best month since July, helped by sharply lower gasoline prices, lower unemployment and moderate weather,” said James P. Hallan, MRA president and CEO. “That boost lifted holiday sales and results for all of 2014, although not as much as expected.”
About a third (32 percent) of retailers reported holiday sales increases above 5 percent. Another 20 percent rang up smaller increases, and 23 percent reported flat sales. A quarter (25 percent) of retailers experienced declines.
The December monthly survey of MRA members showed 54 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 29 percent recorded declines and 17 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 66.5, up sharply from 48.1 in November. A year ago December the Index stood at 50.5.
The 100-point Index gauges the performance of the state’s overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.
Looking forward, 49 percent of retailers expect sales during January–March to increase over the same period last year, while 22 percent project a decrease and 29 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 68, up from 64.1 in November. A year ago December the Index stood at 63.3.
Note: William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
