3-month optimism highest since summer 2023
Michigan Retailers Association reports that September 2024’s Retail Index decreased to 38.7, in comparison to August’s 44.9 on the 100-point Retail Index. Despite continuing month-over-month decreases in Retail Index scores since July, retailers remain increasingly optimistic that the remainder of the year holds improvement.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Fifty-eight percent noted a decrease in September sales over August, 35% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales increase, and 7% reported no change.
“September’s continued decline in sales reflects the uncertainty consumers feel and the restraint they’re showing heading into the Nov. 5 election. Retailers’ increased optimism hinges on the 2024 holiday shopping season boosting sales,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “With a shortened holiday shopping season, it’s critical to support Michigan retailers by shopping early at local downtown shops and using every opportunity to buy nearby.”
Retailers’ Optimistic for Strong Holiday Sales
When asked to predict their sales outlook for the next three months, 55% of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise through December and 31% said they expect their sales to decline, and 14% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 68.2, an increase over August’s 64.7, and the highest Index rating since July 2023 (70.9).
“Redirecting just one in ten purchases from out-of-state e-commerce businesses to Michigan-owned retailers would produce $2.6 billion in gross economic output for Michigan, according to our recent economic survey,” said Hallan. “We encourage every Michigander to shop small and keep their dollars circulating in their community.”
National Retail Federation Holiday Forecast
The National Retail Federation reports that holiday spending in November and December is expected to reach between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, up 2.5% and 3.5% from 2023. Last year, predictions reached $955.6 billion.
Unemployment Rates
The national unemployment rate in September fell to 4.1% from August’s 4.2%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.8%. The Michigan unemployment rate remained unchanged in September, staying at August’s 4.5%. Last September, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.1%.
