 |
Retailers’ sales and forecasts continue to slideMichigan retailers’ sales and short-term forecasts fell in July and remained down in August. Retailers’ sales performance fell slightly on August’s Michigan Retail Index, a survey project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and their forecasts for the next three months dropped 3 points on the Index. “Back-to-school shopping provided no positive momentum for most Michigan retailers, which was disappointing,” said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. “We will be watching September’s numbers closely to see if the recent drop in gasoline prices spurs consumer spending during the fall.” The Index found that 31 percent of retailers increased sales in August over the same month last year, while 56 percent recorded declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 37.3, down from 38.8 in July and 44.1 in June—and the lowest figure since February 2003. An Index number below 50 generally indicates decreased activity for the industry as a whole, and the performance number has been below 50 for 21 of the past 23 months. In addition, 46 percent believe their sales will increase for September–November, while 28 percent forecast declines and 26 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 57.0, down from 60.2 in July and 64.0 in June. It was the lowest figure since December 2000. After a slight bump up in July, sales tax collections were weak in August, declining 8.7 percent to $569.1 million. Most of the sales tax decline was anticipated due to timing factors that inflated last year’s collections. Motor vehicle sales tax collections declined 18.6 percent from last year’s level, with the lowest August sales since 1998; sales tax collections from all other retail transactions fell 7.1 percent in August. Through August, sales tax collections are practically even with last year’s level. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
|
