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State’s retailers expect better holiday seasonMichigan retailers are projecting a nearly 5-percent sales increase this holiday season, in line with national forecasts. The projections come on the heels of improved September sales, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a survey project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “September was one of the strongest months of the year and provides some sorely needed optimism for the upcoming holiday season,” said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. “Sharply falling gasoline prices, cooler weather and late back-to-school shopping all helped push up sales.” On average, Michigan retailers expect their sales to rise 4.5 percent above last year’s lackluster holiday season (sales were down an average 1.9 percent from 2004). Similarly, the National Retail Federation forecasts a 5.0-percent rise in holiday spending across the U.S., while the International Council of Shopping Centers pegs holiday sales growth at 4.8 percent. The Michigan Retail Index found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales in September over the same month last year, while 44 percent recorded declines and 17 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 50.6, up sharply from 37.3 in August and 38.8 in July. An Index number above 50 generally indicates increased activity for the industry as a whole, and the performance number has been above 50 only three of the past 24 months. In addition, 50 percent believe their sales will increase for October–December, while 26 percent forecast declines and 24 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 63.4, up from 57.0 in August and 60.2 in July. Sales tax revenue in September totaled $507.7 million, representing an 11.1 percent decrease from last year’s level. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, sales tax collections are down 0.9 percent and are running below the consensus estimate by about $50.0 million. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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