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Michigan retailers start year on upbeat note Coming off their best holiday selling season
since 1999, Michigan retailers started the new year also with their highest
level of optimism in four years. The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project
of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, found that the most retailers since 1999 expect to increase sales
for the 1st Quarter. Forty-eight percent project better sales
for January-March over the same period last year, while 30 percent project
as-good sales and 22 percent expect declines. The results create a seasonally
adjusted outlook index of 81.1, virtually the same as the 81.4 in November
and the best December since 83.4 in 1999. For December, the Index found that 45 percent
of retailers increased sales over last year, while 13 percent reported
as-good sales and 42 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally
adjusted performance index of 51.3, up from 47.2 in November and the best
December since 60.6 in 1999. “Optimism remains high for a number
of reasons, including improved performance the last half of 2003 and a
rebounding economy,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. He cautioned, however, that although overall
holiday sales increased by an estimated 5-6 percent in Michigan—the
best in four years—the growth was not uniform. The Index found that
the average increase among survey respondents was only 0.3 percent. And
for all of 2003, which saw weak performance the first six months, respondents
said sales declined by 0.7 percent. Sales tax revenues for December were down
by 1 percent from the previous year, according to the Senate Fiscal Agency’s
monthly revenue report. However, much of the decline comes from the motor
vehicle sector, where sales tax collections fell 3.3 percent; sales tax
collections from all other taxable retail sales were down a slight 0.7
percent. So far in fiscal year 2003-04, sales tax collections are down 0.4 percent. Complete results of this month’s
Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices,
promotions and hiring
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